First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation, 2014-15

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2014-15 (with Base Year 2011-12) as per the revision policy. Second Revised Estimates of the years 2011-12 to 2013-14 (with Base Year 2011-12) have also been released as per the calendar of revision of base year.

2. The First Revised Estimates for the year 2014-15 have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of the benchmark-indicator method used at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 29^th May, 2015. The estimates of GDP and other aggregates for the years 2011-12 to 2013-14 have also undergone revision due to use of latest available data on agricultural production; industrial production especially those based on the provisional results of Annual Survey of Industries (ASI): 2013-14, final results of ASI: 2012-13 and revised results of ASI: 2011-12; government expenditure (replacing Revised Estimates with Actuals for the year 2013-14) and also more comprehensive data available from various source agencies and State Directorates of Economics and Statistics.

3. The salient features of the estimates at aggregate level are indicated below:

Gross Domestic Product

4. Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2014-15 is estimated as ₹ 124.88 lakh crore while that for the year 2013-14 is estimated as ₹ 112.73 lakh crore, exhibiting a growth of 10.8 per cent during 2014-15 as against 13.3 per cent during 2013-14.

5. Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2014-15 and 2013-14 stands at ₹ 105.52 lakh crore and ₹ 98.39 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth of 7.2 per cent during 2014-15, and 6.6 per cent during 2013-14.

Industry-wise Analysis

6. The changes in the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices in different sectors of the economy at current and constant (2011-12) prices are presented in Statements 4.1 and 4.2 respectively. At the aggregate level, nominal GVA at basic prices increased by 10.5 per cent during 2014-15, as against 12.7 per cent during 2013-14. In terms of real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices, there has been a growth of 7.1 per cent in 2014-15, as against growth of 6.3 per cent in 2013-14.

7.  The shares of different sectors of economy in the overall GVA during 2011-12 to 2014-15 and corresponding annual growth rates are mentioned below:

Sector	Percentage share in GVA at current prices				Percentage change in GVA at constant (2011-12) prices over the previous year
	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15
Primary	21.75	21.35	21.18	20.04	1.2	4.0	1.3
Secondary	29.28	28.63	27.96	27.36	4.0	5.3	5.4
Tertiary	48.97	50.02	50.86	52.60	8.1	7.8	10.3
All	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	5.4	6.3	7.1
	Aggregate GVA (Rs. in lakh crore)
	at current prices				at constant prices
Total	81.07	92.10	103.81	114.72	85.47	90.84	97.27

8.  The growth in real GVA at during 2014-15 has been higher than that in 2013-14 mainly due to higher growth in ‘mining and quarrying’ (10.8%), ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services’ (8.0%), ‘trade, repair, hotels & restaurants’ (10.7 %), ‘financial services’ (7.9%), ‘public administration and defence’ (9.8%), and ‘other services’ (11.4%), as may be seen from Statement 4.2. At constant prices, in the primary sector (comprising agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ has shown a decline of 0.2 per cent while ‘mining and quarrying’ increased by 10.8 per cent during 2014-15 as against the growth of 4.2 and 3.0 per cent, respectively during the year 2013-14. The growth of secondary sector (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply& other utility services, and construction) is 5.4 per cent and that of tertiary (services) sector is 10.3 per cent during 2014-15, as against a growth of 5.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.

Net National Income

9.  Nominal Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2014-15 stands at ₹ 110.08 lakh crore as against ₹ 99.34 lakh crore in 2013-14, showing an increase of 10.8 per cent during 2014-15 as against an increase of 13.2 per cent in the previous year.

Gross National Disposable Income

10.  Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated as ₹ 127.46 lakh crore for the year 2014-15, while the estimate for the year 2013-14 stands at ₹ 115.29 lakh crore, showing a growth of 10.6 per cent as against 13.2 per cent in the year 2013-14.

Saving

11.  Gross Saving during 2014-15 is estimated as ₹ 41.17 lakh crore as against ₹ 37.25 lakh crore during 2013-14. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for the year 2014-15 is estimated as 32.3 per cent, the same as in 2013-14.

12.  The highest contributor to the Gross Saving is the household sector, with a share of 57.8 per cent in the year 2014-15. However, the share has declined from 63.4 per cent in 2013-14 to 57.8 in 2014-15. This decline can be attributed to the decline in household savings in physical assets, which has declined from ₹ 14.61 lakh crore in 2013-14 to ₹ 13.79 lakh crore in 2014-15. On the other hand, the share of Non-Financial Corporations has increased from 32.7 per cent in 2013-14 to 37.2 per cent in 2014-15. The share of Financial Corporations increased marginally from 7.9 per cent in 2013-14 to 8.2 per cent in 2014-15, while the dis-saving of General Government has decreased from 4.0 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.2 per cent in 2014-15.

Capital Formation

13. Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current and constant prices is estimated by two approaches – (i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net capital inflow from abroad; and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by the type of assets. The estimates of GCF through the flow of funds approach are treated as the firmer estimates, and the difference between the two approaches is taken as “errors and omissions”. However, GCF by industry of use and by institutional sectors does not include “valuables”, and therefore, these estimates are lower than the estimates available from commodity flow approach.

14.  Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated as ₹ 42.76 lakh crore for the year 2014-15 as compared to ₹ 39.12 lakh crore during 2013-14. The rate of GCF to GDP declined from 34.7 per cent during 2013-14 to 34.2 per cent in the year 2014-15. The rate of GCF excluding valuables to GDP stands at 33.3 per cent and 32.7 per cent for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 respectively. The rate of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2014-15 has been higher than the rate of saving because of net capital inflow from Rest of the World (ROW).

15. In terms of the share to the total GCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-Financial Corporations, with the share rising steadily from 45.7 per cent in 2011-12 to 52.0 per cent in 2014-15 (Statement 9). Share of household sector in GCF is also significant, but has declined from 43.4 per cent in 2011-12 to 33.9 per cent in 2014-15. The share of General Government in GCF has increased from 9.6 per cent in 2011-12 to 12.9 per cent in 2014-15.

16.  Within the Gross Capital Formation at current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) amounted to ₹ 38.44 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against ₹ 35.64 lakh crore in 2013-14.  The rate of GFCF to GDP at current prices was 30.8 per cent in 2014-15 as compared to 31.6 per cent in 2013-14. The change in stocks of inventories, at current prices, increased from ₹ 1.80 lakh crore in 2013-14 to ₹ 2.21 lakh crore in 2014-15, while the valuables increased from ₹ 1.63 lakh crore in 2013-14 to ₹ 1.93 lakh crore in 2014-15.

17. The rate of Gross Capital Formation to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices has decreased marginally from 36.2 per cent in 2013-14 to 35.9 per cent in 2014-15.

Consumption Expenditure

18. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹ 71.93 lakh crore for the year 2014-15 as against ₹ 65.08 lakh crore in 2013-14. In relation to GDP, the rates of PFCE at current prices during 2013-14 and 2014-15 are estimated at 57.7 per cent and 57.6 per cent respectively.

19.   At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated as ₹ 55.20 lakh crore and ₹ 58.64 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 respectively. The corresponding rates of PFCE to GDP for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 are 56.1 per cent and 55.6 per cent respectively.

20. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated as ₹ 13.65 lakh crore for the year 2014-15 as against ₹ 11.53 lakh crore during 2013-14. At constant (2011-12) prices, the estimates of GFCE for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 stand at ₹ 9.77 lakh crore and ₹ 11.03 lakh crore respectively.

Estimates at per capita level

21.  Per Capita Income, i.e., Per Capita Net National Income at current prices, is estimated as ₹ 79,412 and ₹ 86,879 respectively for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15.  Correspondingly, Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 is estimated at ₹ 52,022 and ₹ 56,772 respectively.

22. More details of these estimates are available in Statements 1-9 appended with this Press Note.

Summary of Revision in the GDP Estimates

23. The use of latest available data from various agencies and company-wise revalidation of the industry-wise and institution-wise (public/private) classification of companies in the MCA21 database have resulted in some changes in both the levels of GVA and growth estimates for all the years. The reasons for revision in the estimates of the years 2011-12 to 2013-14, released on 30.01.2015 and the Second Revised Estimates are mentioned in the Annexure.

Revision in the estimates of 2014-15:

24.   The following statement gives the major reasons for variation between the Provisional Estimates (released in May 2015) and the First Revised Estimates of GVA for 2014-15.

Sector	GVA growth in 2014-15		Major reasons for  variation
	Prov. Estimate, May 2015	First Revised Estimate, Jan 2016
Primary	0.6	1.3	Revision in estimates of production of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry products; and use of annual financial reports of public & private sector companies, in place of IIP in the case of ‘mining & quarrying’.
Secondary	6.5	5.4	Actual analysis of financial reports of a larger sample of public & private sector companies instead of key financial indicators derived from advance filings of a small sample of Companies used earlier.
Tertiary	10.2	10.3	Use of Revised Estimates of sales tax and other items in central & state government budget documents instead of Budget Estimates; and replacement of key financial indicators derived from advance filings of a small sample of Companies with actual analysis of financial reports of a larger sample of public & private sector companies.
Total	7.2	7.1

Upcoming Releases

25.       The upcoming releases on GDP are indicated below:

    i.        Advance Estimates for the year 2015-16, along with quarterly estimates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2015-16 on February 8, 2016; and

    ii.        Provisional Estimates for the year 2015-16, along with estimates for all the four quarters of the year on May 31, 2016.

 

NOTES ON THE STATEMENTS

1.     List of Statements

1.      Statement 1.1: Key aggregates of national accounts at current prices

2.      Statement 1.2: Key aggregates of national accounts at constant (2011-12) prices

3.      Statement 2: Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption

4.      Statement 3.1: Output by economic activity and Capital Formation by industry of use at current prices

5.      Statement 3.2: Output by economic activity and Capital Formation by industry of use at constant (2011-12) prices

6.      Statement 4.1: Gross Value Added by economic activity at current basic prices

7.      Statement 4.2: Gross Value Added by economic activity at constant (2011-12) basic prices

8.      Statement 5: Finances for Gross Capital Formation

9.      Statement 6.1: Gross Capital Formation by industry of use at current prices

10.  Statement 6.2: Gross Capital Formation by industry of use at constant (2011-12) prices

11.  Statement 7.1: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by asset& institutional sector at current prices

12.  Statement 7.2: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by asset& institutional sector at constant (2011-12) prices

13.  Statement 8.1: Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Current Prices

14.  Statement 8.2: Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Constant (2011-12) Prices

15.  Statement 9: Institutional Sectors – Key economic indicators at current prices

Annexure: Reasons for revision in the estimates of the years 2011-12 to 2013-14

NOTES ON THE STATEMENTS

ACRONYMS USED IN THE PRESS RELEASE

CE:      Compensation of Employees

CFC:    Consumption of Fixed Capital

CIS:     Changes in Stock

GCF:    Gross Capital Formation

GDI:    Gross Disposable Income

GDP:    Gross Domestic Product

GFCE:  Government Final Consumption Expenditure

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

GNDI: Gross National Disposable Income

GNI:    Gross National Income

GVA:   Gross Value Added

MI:       Mixed Income

NDP:    Net Domestic Product

NNDI:Net National Disposable Income

NNI:    Net National Income

OS:      Operating Surplus

PFCE: Private Final Consumption Expenditure

ROW: Rest of the World

FORMULAE

1.      GVA at basic prices = CE + OS/MI + CFC + Production taxes less Production subsidies

2.      GDP = ∑ GVA at basic prices + Product taxes - Product subsidies

3.      NDP/NNI = GDP/GNI - CFC

4.      GNI = GDP + Net primary income from ROW (Receipts less payments)

5.      Primary Incomes = CE + Property and Entrepreneurial Income

6.      NNDI =NNI + other current transfers from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)

7.      GNDI = NNDI + CFC = GNI + other current transfers from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)

8.      Gross Capital Formation= Gross Savings+ Net Capital Inflow from ROW

9.      GCF = GFCF + CIS + Valuables + “Errors and Omissions”

10.  Gross Disposable Income of Govt. = GFCE + Gross Saving of General Government

11.  Gross Disposable Income (GDI) of Households = GNDI – GDI of Govt. – Gross Savings of All Corporations

REMARKS ON THE FORMULAE:

1.   Production taxes or subsidies are paid or received with relation to production and are independent of the volume of actual production. Some examples are:

Production Taxes - Land Revenues, Stamps and Registration fees and Tax on profession

Production Subsidies - Subsidies to Railways, Subsidies to village and small industries

2.  Product taxes or subsidies are paid or received on per unit of product. Some examples are:

Product Taxes: Excise Tax, Sales tax, Service Tax and Import and Export duties

Product Subsidies: Food, Petroleum and fertilizer subsidies

7.  Other Current Transfers refers to current transfers other than the primary incomes

8.  Estimate of GCF derived from this formula is taken as the “firmer” estimate and the difference between this estimate and the sum of GFCF, CIS and valuables is taken as “errors and omissions”, as referred in 9 above.

Annexure

REASONS FOR REVISION IN THE ESTIMATES OF THE YEARS 2011-12 TO 2013-14

Revision in major aggregates

The level of revisions in the major aggregates at current prices is given in the following table:

Changes at the aggregate level

								(Amount in Rs. lakh crore)
S.No.	Item (at current prices)	2011-12			2012-13			2013-14
		Old	New	%  change	Old	New	%  change	Old	New	%  change
1	GVA at basic prices	81.96	81.07	-1.1	92.52	92.10	-0.5	104.77	103.81	-0.9
2	GDP	88.32	87.36	-1.1	99.89	99.51	-0.4	113.45	112.73	-0.6
3	GNI	87.55	86.59	-1.1	98.72	98.35	-0.4	112.05	111.33	-0.6
4	NNI	78.47	77.42	-1.3	88.42	87.75	-0.8	100.57	99.34	-1.2
5	GNDI	90.60	89.64	-1.1	102.22	101.85	-0.4	116.01	115.29	-0.6

The reasons for revision in GVA/GDP are as under:

Base Year 2011-12

·     Revision in the results of Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), 2011-12

·     Use of separate scaling factors for ‘Public Limited Companies’ and ‘Private Limited Companies’ in the MCA21 database, instead of a common scaling factor used earlier. (This method applies to the subsequent years as well)

Year 2012-13

• Use of final results of ASI, 2012-13 in place of provisional results
• Use of updated information on local bodies and autonomous institutions

Year 2013-14

• Use of updated information on production & prices of agricultural commodities
• Use of provisional results of ASI, 2013-14
• Replacement of ‘Revised Estimates’ of different items of expenditure and receipts in the central & state government budgets by ‘Actuals’
• Use of updated information on local bodies & autonomous institutions
• Use of updated MCA21 database received from the Ministry of Company Affairs