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TMI BlogEstimates of Gross Domestic Productfor the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2011-12X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... Estimates of Gross Domestic Productfor the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2011-12 - News and Press Release Dated:- 30-11-2011 - News - Press Information Bureau Government of India Ministry of Statistics Programme Implementation 30-November-2011 11:1 IST The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP. 2. The estimates of Quarterly GDP for the years 2009-10 and 2010-11 have been revised on account of using the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2004-05 released by CSO on 10 th June 2011. The revisions are mainly in mining, manufacturing, electricity and trade, hotels and restaurant sectors in GDP. Estimates of components of expenditure side of GDP have also been revised, accordingly. 3. The details of the estimates are presented below. I ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (a) At constant (2004-05) prices 4. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... constant (2004-05) prices for Q2 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 12,27,254 crore as against Rs. 11,48,472 crore in Q2 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 6.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year. 5. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11 are, electricity, gas and water supply at 9.8 per cent, trade, hotels, transport and communication at 9.9 per cent and financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 10.5 per cent. The estimated growth rates in other economic activities in this quarter are 3.2 per cent in agriculture, forestry fishing , 2.7 per cent in manufacturing and 4.3 per cent in construction and 6.6 per cent in community, social and personal services . The growth of mining and quarrying sector declined to (- )2.9 per cent during this period. The decrease in the growth of GDP in second quarter of 2011-12 is largely due to the negative growth in mining and quarrying and steep fall in the growth of manufacturing sector, as compared to their levels of growth in Q2 of 2010-11. 6. According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains, Oilseeds and othe ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... r Commercial Crops for 2011-12 released by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 16.9.2011, the production of rice and oilseeds is expected to grow by 8.0% and 0.2% respectively whereas the production of coarse cereals and pulses is expected to decline by (-) 6.2% and (-) 9.7% respectively, during the Kharif season of 2011-12 as compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif season of 2010-11. Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in agriculture, forestry fishing estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the anticipated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which show growth in the range of 3-4%. 7. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 2.7 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth rates of 6.3 per cent, 7.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent in these industries in Q2 of 2010-11. 8. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... of 6.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12. 9. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rates of 3.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12. In the transport and communication sectors, the sales of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, passenger handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of 21.3 per cent, 0.9 per cent, 17.2 per cent and 36.4 percent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 21.1 per cent and 23.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11. (b) At current prices 10. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2011-12, is estimated at Rs. 19,55,880 crore, as against Rs. 16,85,793 crore in Q2, 2010-11, showing an increase of 16.0 per cent. 11. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 9.0 per cent ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... , 7.7 per cent, (-)0.2 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2011-12, over Q2 of 2010-11. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 9.2 per cent during Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11. II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP 12. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices. Private Final Consumption Expenditure 13. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 12,43,681 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 10,71,221 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 7,85,463 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 7,41,624 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 59.6 per cent and 59.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.4 per cent and 59.9 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2010-11. Government Final Consumption ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... Expenditure 14. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,22,356 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,96,498 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,40,883 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,35,400 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 10.7 per cent each as against the corresponding rates of 10.9 per cent each in Q2 of 2010-11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 5,84,236 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 5,45,660 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,02,994 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 4,05,567 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 28.0 per cent and 30.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.3 per cent and 32.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2010-11. 16. Estimates of GDP at factor ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8. STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP AT FACTOR COST IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at 2004-05 prices) Industry (Rs. in crore) Percentage change Gross Domestic Product over previous year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 157,064 124,859 160,771 131,550 167,091 135,789 2.4 5.4 3.9 3.2 2. mining and quarrying 24,547 23,620 26,354 25,509 26,832 24,774 7.4 8.0 1.8 -2.9 3. manufacturing 165,950 174,236 183,488 187,763 196,699 192,849 10.6 7.8 7.2 2.7 4. electricity, gas and water supply 21,998 22,273 23,204 ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... 22,894 25,042 25,137 5.5 2.8 7.9 9.8 5. construction 86,858 85,827 93,514 91,556 94,639 95,489 7.7 6.7 1.2 4.3 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 267,362 282,295 299,600 311,166 337,872 342,080 12.1 10.2 12.8 9.9 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 187,575 189,614 205,870 208,644 224,574 230,627 9.8 10.0 9.1 10.5 8. community, social and personal services 134,508 157,039 145,485 169,390 153,589 180,511 8.2 7.9 5.6 6.6 GDP at factor cost 1,045,861 1,059,763 1,138,286 1,148,472 1,226,339 1,227,254 8.8 8.4 7.7 6.9 STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at 2004-05 prices) Item (Rs. in crore) RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%) ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 683,395 680,687 748,395 741,624 795,682 785,463 61.7 59.9 60.5 59.5 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) 125,699 127,296 134,161 135,400 136,935 140,883 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.7 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 342,555 367,781 380,544 405,567 410,533 402,994 31.4 32.8 31.2 30.5 4. Change in Stocks 40,069 42,069 43,788 44,808 45,852 45,499 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 5. Valuables 22,080 24,613 29,240 29,984 40,723 37,681 2.4 2.4 3.1 2.9 6. Exports 234,642 237,284 257,587 262,098 320,247 333,947 21.2 21.2 ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... 24.3 25.3 7. Less Imports 304,740 320,154 351,037 356,753 433,824 395,512 28.9 28.8 33.0 29.9 8. Discrepancies -32,040 -20,406 -30,058 -25,117 -755 -29,918 -2.5 -2.0 -0.1 -2.3 GDP at market prices 1,111,659 1,139,170 1,212,620 1,237,610 1,315,395 1,321,038 100 100 100 100 STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP AT FACTOR COST IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at current prices) Industry (Rs. in crore) Percentage change Gross Domestic Product over previous year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 237,751 200,035 300,298 253,965 350,405 294,349 26.3 27.0 16.7 15.9 2. mining and quarrying 35,880 36,665 45,519 44,449 ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... 52,074 50,589 26.9 21.2 14.4 13.8 3. manufacturing 205,874 218,387 243,533 250,239 277,193 274,314 18.3 14.6 13.8 9.6 4. electricity, gas and water supply 22,480 23,281 25,342 25,404 27,423 27,835 12.7 9.1 8.2 9.6 5. construction 117,722 119,527 140,084 139,320 155,080 159,209 19.0 16.6 10.7 14.3 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 321,706 346,017 387,399 404,487 466,959 475,291 20.4 16.9 20.5 17.5 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 242,192 250,744 293,512 300,952 349,665 362,963 21.2 20.0 19.1 20.6 8. community, social and personal services 185,058 225,352 224,023 266,976 258,325 311,330 21.1 18.5 15.3 16.6 GDP at factor cost 1,368,663 1,420,008 1,659,708 1,685,793 ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... 1,937,123 1,955,880 21.3 18.7 16.7 16.0 STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at current prices) Item (Rs. in crore) RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%) Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 849,660 886,616 1,029,527 1,071,221 1,197,461 1,243,681 58.7 59.4 58.1 59.6 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) 161,894 167,714 195,413 196,498 217,483 222,356 11.1 10.9 10.5 10.7 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 432,495 467,606 512,457 545,660 585,261 584,236 29.2 30.3 28.4 28.0 4. Change in Stocks 48,959 51,934 61,026 62,706 70,086 70,207 ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 5. Valuables 27,857 31,478 40,779 42,388 79,965 75,004 2.3 2.4 3.9 3.6 6. Exports 296,191 306,820 365,290 374,264 493,936 520,210 20.8 20.8 24.0 24.9 7. Less Imports 356,540 383,218 453,521 463,086 602,835 558,603 25.8 25.7 29.2 26.8 8.Discrepancies -23,026 -24,105 4,372 -27,693 20,583 -71,777 0.2 -1.5 1.0 -3.4 GDP at market prices 1,437,489 1,504,844 1,755,341 1,801,957 2,061,940 2,085,315 100 100 100 100 STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GDP IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at 2004-05 prices) APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Percentage change Industry Gross Domestic Product in H1 of Over previous year H1 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 281,923 292,321 302,880 3.7 3.6 2. mining and quarrying 48,167 51,863 51,606 7.7 -0.5 3. manufacturing 340,186 371,251 389,548 9.1 4.9 4. electricity, gas and water supply 44,271 46,098 50,179 4.1 8.9 5. construction 172,685 185,070 190,128 7.2 2.7 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 549,657 610,766 679,952 11.1 11.3 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 377,189 414,514 455,201 9.9 9.8 8. community, social and 291,547 314,875 334,100 8.0 6.1 GDP at factor cost 2,105,625 2,286,758 2,453,592 8.6 7.3 STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at 2004-05 prices) APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Rates of GDP at market prices (%) ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... Item Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1 in H1 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 1,364,082 1,490,019 1,581,145 60.8 60.0 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 252,995 269,561 277,818 11.0 10.5 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 710,336 786,111 813,527 32.1 30.9 4. Change in Stocks 82,138 88,596 91,351 3.6 3.5 5. Valuables 46,693 59,224 78,404 2.4 3.0 6. Exports 471,926 519,685 654,194 21.2 24.8 7. Less Imports 624,894 707,790 829,336 28.9 31.5 8. Discrepancies -52,446 -55,175 -30,673 -2.3 -1.2 GDP at market prices 2,250,830 2,450,230 2,636,431 100 100 STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GDP IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at current ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... prices) APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Percentage change Industry Gross Domestic Product in H1 of over previous year H1 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 437,786 554,263 644,754 26.6 16.3 2. mining and quarrying 72,545 89,968 102,663 24.0 14.1 3. manufacturing 424,261 493,772 551,507 16.4 11.7 4. electricity, gas and water supply 45,761 50,746 55,258 10.9 8.9 5. construction 237,249 279,404 314,289 17.8 12.5 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 667,723 791,886 942,250 18.6 19.0 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 492,936 594,464 712,628 20.6 19.9 8. community, social and personal services 410,410 490,999 569,655 19.6 16.0 GDP at factor cost 2,788,671 3,3 ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... 45,503 3,893,004 20.0 16.4 STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2011-12 (at current prices) Item APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Rates of GDP at market prices (%) Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1 in H1 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 1,736,276 2,100,748 2,441,142 59.1 58.9 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 329,608 391,911 439,839 11.0 10.6 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 900,101 1,058,117 1,169,497 29.7 28.2 4. Change in Stocks 100,893 123,732 140,293 3.5 3.4 5. Valuables 59,335 83,167 154,969 2.3 3.7 6. Exports 603,011 739,554 1,014,146 20.8 24.5 7. Less Imports 739,758 916,607 1,161,438 25.8 28.0 ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X ..... 8. Discrepancies -47,131 -23,321 -51,194 -0.7 -1.2 GDP at market prices 2,942,334 3,557,300 4,147,255 100 100 H1: April- September - News - Press release - PIB Tax Management India - taxmanagementindia - taxmanagement - taxmanagementindia.com - TMI - TaxTMI - TMITax ..... X X X X Extracts X X X X X X X X Extracts X X X X
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