Indian Economy Post Lock-down

[Meenakshi Jindal]

As we all are aware that not only India but the whole world is effected from the COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019). Due to this we need to keep ourselves quarantine by staying at home and maintain social distancing. The Prime Minister of India  Shri Narendra Modi announced the 21- days lock-down as a first step and further 19 days lock-down in the country to combat the spread of this pandemic on March 24, 2020 and April 14, 2020 respectively.

But despite all these, we need to think about these questions that may get arise in our mind now that 

• what will happen after the lock-down?
• what will be the Economic impact of this lock-down? or
• what will be the inflation rate in the Country? 

Don't worry, You will get all the answers of your queries in this blog. Let's Start from the question what will happen after the lock-down?

After the lock-down period, all the services or activities will not get started immediately. 

Permissible activities after some relaxations :-There are some activities like travel by air, rail and road; operation of educational and training institutions; industrial and commercial activities; hospitality services; all cinema halls, shopping complexes, theaters, etc.; all social, political and other events; and opening of all religious places/ places of worship for members of public, including religious congregations are permissible after following certain conditions which will be applied by the government.

Functional activities:- The following economic activities will remain functional as these are very critical for agricultural sector and job creation provided adhering to the protocols created for the purpose of tackling the corona virus pandemic:

• Agricultural and related activities;
• Activities which are based on providing daily wages;
• Movement of Cargo;
• Plantations, fisheries and farming operations;
• Print and electronic media, IT, Courier services;
• Establishments earmarked for quarantine facilities;
• Health services and public utility services;
• All important offices of Central and State Govt. and Local bodies;
• Services provided by electrician, IT, repairs, plumbers, motor mechanics and carpenters etc and there are more activities which are permitted after the lock-down period. (*The list of these activities are issued by Home Ministry).

So from the above, It can be concluded that activities which are prohibited would suffer great loss and they may also impact the economy negatively.

 Moving to the next question what will be the Economic impact of this lock-down?

According to analysts and industry bodies, the Indian Economy may have cost of ₹ 7-8 Lakh Crore in just 21 days lock-down period which will arise as further lock-down period has been announced.

Centrum Institutional Research said the country again stares at the possibility of low single-digit growth for FY2021 (April 2020 to March 2021).

Acuite Ratings & Research Ltd estimated that the lockdown will cost the Indian economy almost USD 4.64 billion (over ₹ 35,000 crore) every day and the entire 21-day lock-down will result in a GDP loss of almost USD 98 billion (about ₹ 7.5 lakh crore).

The sectors which will be impact widely due to extension of lock-down period are transport, hotels, restaurants and real estates.

Answer to the question what will be the inflation rate in the Country? 

RBI in its report said that the economic impact of domestic lock-down and lock-down in several countries is ambiguous on inflation. Further RBI stated in its report that “While inflation has peaked and vegetable prices are on the ebb, the impact of COVID-19 on inflation is ambiguous relative to that on growth, with a possible decline in prices of food items being offset by potential cost-push increases in prices of non-food items due to supply disruptions.”

The RBI said. “Since March 2020, the inflation outlook has become highly uncertain due to the COVID-19 outbreak turning into a pandemic.

Well said that

"HOPE IS THE ONLY THING STRONGER THAN FEAR"

Author: CS Meenakshi Jindal

Email: [email protected]