Estimates of Gross Domestic Product For the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2013-14

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2013-14, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP.

The details of the estimates are presented below.

I    ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

(a)   At constant (2004-05) prices

2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q2 of 2013-14 is estimated at Rs. 13.68 lakh crore as against Rs. 13.05 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13, showing a growth rate of 4.8 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

3. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2011-12 are ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing‘ at 4.6 per cent, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ at 7.7 per cent ‘construction’ at 4.3 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 10.0 per cent and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 4.2 per cent. The growth rates in ‘mining and quarrying’ is estimated at (-)0.4 per cent, ‘manufacturing’ at 1.0 per cent, and ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 4.0 per cent in this period.

Agriculture

4. According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for 2013-14 released by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 25.9.2013, production of coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds are expected to grow by 4.9%, 1.9% and 14.9% respectively during the Kharif season of 2013-14 as compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif season of 2012-13. Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the estimated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries.

Industry

5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 0.1 per cent, 1.2 per cent and 8.4 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2013-14. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 5.9 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2013-14.

Services

6.   Among the services sectors, key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 3.7 per cent and (-) 2.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2013-14. In the transport sector, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-)22.1 per cent, 5.9 per cent, 0.4 per cent and 12.6 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2012-13. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 12.0 per cent, and 15.4 per cent, respectively as on September 2013-14.

(b) At current prices

7.   GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2013-14, is estimated at Rs. 25.05 lakh crore, as against Rs.22.28 lakh crore in Q2, 2012-13, showing an increase of 12.4 per cent.

8.   The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, inland fish, machinery & machine tools, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 16.3 per cent, 35.8 per cent, 2.0 percent, 2.2 per cent, 13.0 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2013-14, over Q2 of 2012-13. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 10.9 per cent during Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2012-13.

II     ESTIMATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES

9.   GDP at current market prices in Q2 of 2013-14, is estimated at Rs. 26.19 lakh crore, as against Rs.23.17 lakh crore in Q2, 2012-13, showing an increase of 13.0 per cent. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the GDP at market prices is estimated at Rs. 14.30 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against Rs. 13.54 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13 showing an increase of 5.6 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year. There has been a decline in the growth of major subsidies from 97.9 percent in Q2 of 2012-13 to (-) 10.5 percent in Q2 of 2013-14. Further, the indirect tax revenue of the central government including customs, excise and service tax has shown a growth of 6.1 percent in Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2012-13.

III   ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

10. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

11. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs.14.83 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against Rs. 13.49 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 8.55 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against Rs. 8.37 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 56.6 per cent and 59.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.2 per cent and 61.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

12.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2.89 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against Rs. 2.66 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1.47 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against Rs. 1.49 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 11.0 per cent and 10.3 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.5 per cent and 11.0 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

13.      Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 7.71 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against Rs. 7.16 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4.81 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against Rs. 4.68 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 29.4 per cent and 33.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.9 per cent and 34.6 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13.

14.       Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

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