First Revised Estimates of National income, Consumption expenditure, saving and capital formation, 2012-13

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation have released, as per the revision policy, the First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2012-13 along with the Second Revised Estimates for the year 2011-12 and Third Revised Estimates for the year 2010-11.

The First Revised Estimates for the year 2012-13 have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of the benchmark-indicator method used at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 31st May, 2013. The estimates of GDP and other aggregates for the years 2010-11 and 2011-12 have been revised on account of use of latest available data on agricultural production, industrial production especially ASI 2011-12 in lieu of IIP, government expenditure (replacing Revised Estimates with Actuals for the year 2011-12) and also detailed and more comprehensive data available from various source agencies like RBI and State Directorates of Economics and Statistics.

The salient features of the estimates at aggregate level, which are based on latest available information, are indicated below:

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROSS NATIONAL INCOME

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 54.8 lakh crore as against Rs. 52.5 lakh crore in 2011-12 registering a growth of 4.5   per cent during the year as against a growth of 6.7 per cent in the year 2011-12. At current prices, GDP in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 93.9 lakh crore as against Rs. 83.9 lakh crore in 2011-12, showing an increase of 11.9 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 15.8 per cent in the previous year.

At constant (2004-05) prices, the Gross National Income at factor cost in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 54.2 lakh crore as against Rs. 52 lakh crore in 2011-12 showing a rise of 4.1 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 6.9 per cent in the previous year. At current prices, the Gross National Income in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 92.7 lakh crore as compared to Rs. 83.1 lakh crore in 2011-12, showing a rise of 11.5 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 16.0 per cent in the previous year.

The growth rate of 4.5 per cent in the GDP during 2012-13 has been achieved due to growth in financing, insurance, real estate & business services (10.9 %), transport, storage and communication (6%) and community, social and personal services (5.3 %). At constant prices, in the primary sector (agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), agriculture, forestry & fishing has shown a growth of 1.4 per cent while mining declined by 2.2 per cent during 2012-13 as against the growth of 5 and 0.1 per cent, respectively during the year 2011-12. The growth of secondary sector (manufacturing, electricity, gas & water supply and construction) is 1.2 per cent and that of tertiary (services) sector is 7 per cent during 2012-13, as against a growth of 8.5 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.

The growth rates and shares of different sectors of economy during 2010-11 to 2012-13 are mentioned below:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices at constant (2004-05) prices in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 59 lakh crore as against Rs. 56.3 lakh crore in 2011-12 registering a growth of 4.7    per cent during the year as against a growth of 6.6 per cent in the year 2011-12. At current prices, GDP at market prices in 2012-13 is estimated at  Rs. 101.1 lakh crore as against Rs. 90.1 lakh crore in 2011-12, showing an increase of  12.2 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 15.7 per cent in the previous year.

CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION 

As various components of expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, Consumption Expenditure and Capital Formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices.  

PRIVATE FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 57.7   lakh crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 51.4 lakh crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 35.5 lakh crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 33.8 lakh crore in 2011-12.  In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 57.1 per cent and 60.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of  57.1  per cent and 60 per cent, respectively in 2011-12.

DOMESTIC SAVING

Gross Domestic Saving (GDS) at current prices in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 30.4 lakh crore as against Rs. 28.2 lakh crore in 2011-12, constituting 30.1 per cent of GDP at market prices as against 31.3 per cent in the previous year.  The decrease in the rate of GDS in the current year compared to previous year has mainly been due to the decrease in the rates of savings of household sector in physical assets from 15.8 per cent to 14.8 per cent and  private corporate sector from 7.3 per cent to 7.1 per cent. In absolute terms, the saving of the household sector has increased from Rs. 20.5 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 22.1 lakh crore in 2012-13, increasing by 7.7 per cent during the year. The saving of private corporate sector has gone up by 8.3 per cent from Rs. 6.6 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 7.1 lakh crore in 2012-13 and the saving of public sector has gone up by 6.0 per cent from Rs. 1.1 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 1.2 lakh crore in 2012-13.

CAPITAL FORMATION

Gross Capital Formation (including valuables) has increased from Rs. 32 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 35.2 lakh  crore in 2012-13 at current prices and it increased from Rs. 21.8 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 23 lakh crore in 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) prices.  The rate of Gross Capital Formation (including valuables) at current prices is 34.8 per cent in 2012-13 as against 35.5 per cent in 2011-12.  The rate of Gross Capital Formation (including valuables) at constant (2004-05) prices is 38.9 per cent in 2012-13 as against 38.8 per cent in 2011-12.

Gross Capital Formation (excluding valuables) has increased from Rs.  29.5 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 32.5 lakh  crore in 2012-13 at current prices and it increased from Rs. 20.5 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 21.2 lakh crore in 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) prices.  The rate of Gross Capital Formation (excluding valuables) at current prices is 32.2 per cent in 2012-13 as against 32.8 per cent in 2011-12.  The rate of Gross Capital Formation (excluding valuables) at constant (2004-05) prices is 35.9 per cent in 2012-13 as against 36.4 per cent in 2011-12.

The Gross Fixed Capital Formation at current prices amounted to Rs. 30.7 lakh crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 28.6 lakh crore in 2011-12, increasing by 7.4 per cent during the year.  At current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation of the public sector has increased by 23.5 per cent from Rs. 6.4 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 7.9 lakh crore in 2012-13, that of private corporate sector by 0.8 per cent from Rs. 8.5 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 8.6 lakh crore in 2012-13, and the household sector by 3.9 per cent from Rs. 13.7 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 14.3 lakh crore in 2012-13.

The change in stocks of inventories, measured as additions to stocks, at current prices remained at Rs. 1.7 lakh crore in 2012-13. At constant prices, it declined by 9 per cent from Rs. 1.2 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 1.1 lakh crore in 2012-13.

ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL

The per capita income (per capita Net National Income at factor cost) in real terms is estimated at Rs. 38,856 for 2012-13 as against Rs. 38,048 in 2011-12, registering an increase of 2.1 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 5.1 per cent during the previous year. The per capita income at current prices is estimated at Rs. 67,839 in 2012-13 as against Rs. 61,855 for the previous year depicting a growth of 9.7 per cent, as against an increase of 14.5 per cent during the previous year.

The per capita PFCE at current prices in 2012-13 is estimated to be Rs. 47,429 as against Rs. 42,778 in the year 2011-12, showing an increase of 10.9 per cent as against an increase of 16.4 per cent in the previous year. The corresponding estimates at constant (2004-05) prices are Rs. 29,150 and Rs. 28,107, registering an increase of 3.7 per cent in 2012-13, as against an increase of 7.8 per cent in the previous year.

PERFORMANCE OF PUBLIC SECTOR

GVA at current prices from public sector has increased from Rs. 17 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 19.2 lakh crore in 2012-13. Its share in GDP has slightly increased from 20.2 per cent in 2011-12 to 20.4 per cent in 2012-13. During the year, public sector’s share in Gross Domestic Saving, GCF and Final Consumption Expenditure are estimated at 3.9, 25.3 and 17 per cent respectively as against the previous year’s estimates of 3.9, 23 and 16.6 per cent.

SUMMARY OF REVISION IN THE GDP ESTIMATES

Though the revisions in the level estimates of GDP, both at constant (2004-05) prices and at current prices, have been insignificant (not more than 0.8%), the growth rates have been affected by the relative changes in the annual estimates. Following are the reasons for revision in the growth rate for the year 2012-13 between the Provisional Estimates (released in May 2013) and the First Revised Estimates of GVA for 2012-13:

In the compilation of the First Revised estimates for the manufacturing sector, the growth rate in Index of Industrial Production has been used for the year 2012-13. Subsequently, in the compilation of the Second Revised Estimates of the registered manufacturing sector, which are scheduled for release in January, 2015, the data of Annual Survey of Industries 2012-13 shall become available and hence would be incorporated. The divergence between ASI growth and IIP growth in the recent years has been resulting in major revisions in the GVA estimates not only from this sector but also from the other dependent sectors.

As stated in Para 2 of the Press Note, the GDP estimates of the year 2011-12 have been revised by incorporating the latest available data. The growth rate, which had earlier been stated as 6.2% in January 2013, has now been revised to 6.7%. This revision has been largely due to the replacement of IIP based estimates of manufacturing sector, by the provisional results of ASI 2011-12. Further, actual expenditure of governments, both central and states, have been adopted now compared to the Revised Budget Estimates used at the time of First Revised Estimates of 2011-12.

The growth rate of GDP for the year 2010-11 has been revised from 9.3% to 8.9% mostly due to the revised data received from the State Directorates of Economics & Statistics after the previous release made in January 2013. Another cause for this decrease in growth rate is the difference between the provisional and final results of ASI 2010-11.

The estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation at aggregate and per capita levels for the years 2004-05 to 2012-13 are presented in Statement 1 and the detailed estimates at industry/item level in Statements 2 to 8. The statements on Income & Outlay Account and Capital Finance Account of the Administrative Departments, as also the Price and Quantum Indices are available on the website of the Ministry,

www.mospi.gov.in.

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