Armed conflict biggest immediate global risk, misinformation in short term

New Delhi, Jan 15 (PTI) State-based armed conflict has emerged as the top immediate risk for 2025, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions and fragmentation globally, the World Economic Forum said on Wednesday.

Misinformation and disinformation lead short-term risks, while environmental risks dominate the 10-year horizon, led by extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, the WEF said in its latest Global Risks Report.

On the global political outlook over the next decade, the report said most global leaders expect a multipolar or fragmented order, where the Western-led global order is expected to continue its decline and alternative power centres are likely to strengthen in the form of China, India and the Gulf states.

The report, now in its 20th edition, leverages insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey, which draws on the views of over 900 global leaders across business, government, academia and civil society.

The report identifies and analyses the most pressing risks across immediate, short and long-term horizons, aiming to equip leaders with foresight to address emerging challenges.

The report revealed an increasingly fractured global landscape, where escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal and technological challenges threaten stability and progress.

While economic risks have less immediate prominence in this year's survey results, they remain a concern, interconnected with societal and geopolitical tensions.

State-based armed conflict was identified as the most pressing immediate global risk for 2025, with nearly one-quarter of respondents ranking it as the most severe concern for the year ahead.

Misinformation and disinformation remained top short-term risks for the second consecutive year, underlining their persistent threat to societal cohesion and governance by eroding trust and exacerbating divisions within and between nations.

Other leading short-term risks include extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber-espionage and warfare.

Environmental risks dominate the longer-term outlook, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, critical change to earth systems and natural resources shortages leading the 10-year risk rankings.

The fifth environmental risk in the top 10 is pollution, which is also perceived as a leading risk in the short term.

Its sixth-place ranking in the short term reflects a growing recognition of the serious health and ecosystem impacts of a wide range of pollutants across air, water and land.

Overall, extreme weather events were identified prominently as immediate, short-term and long-term risks.

The long-term landscape is also clouded by technological risks related to misinformation, disinformation and adverse outcomes of AI technologies.

"Rising geopolitical tensions, a fracturing of global trust and the climate crisis are straining the global system like never before," WEF Managing Director Mirek Dusek said.

"In a world marked by deepening divides and cascading risks, global leaders have a choice: to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding instability. The stakes have never been higher," he added.

The report, based on experts and leaders surveyed in September and October 2024, painted a stark picture of the decade ahead.

Respondents were far less optimistic about the outlook for the world over the longer term than the short term.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipated a turbulent or stormy global landscape by 2035, driven in particular by intensifying environmental, technological and societal challenges.

Over half of respondents expected some instability within two years, reflecting the widespread fracturing of international cooperation.

Long-term projections signalled even greater challenges as mechanisms for collaboration are expected to face mounting pressure.

Societal risks such as inequality and societal polarization featured prominently in both short and long-term risk rankings.

Rising concerns about illicit economic activity, mounting debt burdens and the concentration of strategic resources highlighted vulnerabilities that could destabilise the global economy in the coming years.

All these issues risk exacerbating domestic instability and eroding trust in governance, further complicating efforts to address global challenges, the WEF said.

As divisions deepen and fragmentation reshapes geopolitical and economic landscapes, the need for effective global cooperation has never been more urgent, the Forum said.

Nearly 64 per cent of respondents expected a multipolar or fragmented order, in which middle and great powers contest, set and enforce regional rules and norms.

The Western-led global order is expected to continue its decline over the next decade but will nonetheless remain an important locus of power. Alternative power centres are likely to strengthen, not just led by China, but also by key emerging powers, including India and the Gulf states, the report said. PTI BJ HVA

Source: PTI