Optimistic about India-US ties continuing on positive trajectory: Foreign policy experts

New Delhi, Jan 17 (PTI) Days ahead of Donald Trump's swearing-in as the 47th president of the United States, some foreign policy experts said they were optimistic that the ties between both sides will continue on a "positive trajectory".

They, however, underlined the aspect of "unpredictability" associated with Trump, who will take the top office in Washington for the second time, and said they expected "certain challenges" as one goes into the new administration, dubbed popularly as Trump 2.0.

Mukesh Aghi, the president and CEO of US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF), expressed an optimistic note regarding the bilateral ties but cautioned that the "H1B visa issue" is going to get "a little more explosive" in Trump's second term.

Aghi put forth his views at an online conference titled "The Trump Card: India's Choices & Strategy" hosted by a think-tank.

Trump would be sworn-in as the US president on January 20 along with J D Vance as the vice president.

The 78-year-old Republican will replace outgoing President Joe Biden.

"We have an administration coming in which is focused on how to 'Make America Great Again'... Now, what we have is a scenario where you will see a lot of glass being broken, norms being challenged and a sense of unpredictability in an environment which is already very, very turbulent. So, we do expect certain challenges as we go into the new administration," said Aghi, who joined the conference from the US capital.

With regards to India and the US, you have the two countries where the trade is around USD 200 billion. But more importantly, geopolitically, they are "very much aligned" in every aspect, vis-a-vis especially in the Indo-Pacific, and especially towards China, the foreign policy expert said.

And, what is more important is that there are "roughly 5 million Indian-Americans, which make around 1.5 per cent of the population, but they are generating roughly around 6 per cent of the GDP", he asserted.

There are roughly 1.1 million H1B visa holders, who have applied for a green card. And that will take decades for them to get their green cards to be a resident permanently here itself, Aghi said.

The online event was hosted late Wednesday evening by Centre for Global India Insights, a think-tank focused on global affairs.

Aghi, however, underlined that many Indian nationals also constituted as one of largest illegal migrants into the US.

"That's where you are going to see challenges. Because the top two countries... are kind of reluctant at the moment to take (their citizens) back, whereas India has proactively taken an approach," he said.

Illegal immigration was one of the major poll issues for the Republican party and Trump made ample references to it in his election rallies. Aghi said, however, more important is talk about from a geopolitical perspective. "Yes, there is a thaw in discussions between India and China. There is a thaw as far as the investment goes which needs to come back, come into India from China," he said.

Emphasizing that India has to "work closely" with the US, Aghi pointed out that some of the appointments in Trump 2.0 seem to be "China hawks".

"So, I think that is where India has to basically leverage the national security angle and drive the economic agenda. And, that is where we have recommended to the new administration to take the Quad partnership among the four countries and somehow percolate that into an economic partnership and energy partnership," he added.

"So, we are very optimistic that the relationship between India and the US will continue on a positive trajectory," Aghi said, adding investment momentum is picking up "substantially".

"But more important is the H1B visa issue is going to get a little more explosive" as you look at the MAGA ('Make America Great Again') supporters, who are going to put up a big fight, he said, adding H1B is critical for the US companies.

Former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal in his virtual address during the conference said that he broadly agreed with Aghi's optimism.

"I think, it's well founded... But, as you said, the predictable thing about Trump is his unpredictability. So, he has done certain things which are increasing that sense of uncertainty," he said.

Sibal made reference to Trump's recent remarks on Canada, Greenland and Panama Canal, "totally unmindful of the kind of reactions that would be in the wider world".

"Because this upends the norms that the US and the West has generally upheld as the core of their foreign policies and values at international level. This can have a ripple effect with some consequences for India and the US itself," Sibal said.

The former foreign secretary further said the Biden administration and NSA Jake Sullivan in particular have played a "remarkable role" in trying to build the foundation for a cooperation in critical and advanced technologies through the iCET framework.

And the fact that he chose to come to India few days before leaving office and had a discussion on this subject, he said.

Sullivan visited India early this month to take stock of the India-US Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET).

Sibal said there have been arguments that it could have been done earlier, but a seed has been planted and it is "bound to flower" because this will be built on by the incoming adminstration. PTI KND AS AS

Source: PTI