PESSIMISM ALL AROUND BUT HOPE EXISTS

[Dr. Sanjiv Agarwal]

White India is unable to control its inflation and maintain its economic growth owing to global pressures and slow down, poor economic management has led to a situation which is slowly turning  into a grave situation for one and all. Interest rate is just one indication followed by slower industrial and GDP growth. The slow growth in all sectors- agriculture, industries and services will put pressure on fiscal targets and end up with lower tax revenues.

Last week stock markets the world our crashed  and there was panic selling at all counters. It was a crash all over- US to Asia toEurope. InIndia, it was a lowest close since June 2010. Shares of about 125 top 500 companies tanked to a one year low.

In such a scenario, what should you and I do? What can yield better returns? Where does one not gets some cover against loss of capital and inflation. There is no clue  to the answer as every where, there is volatility and nothing seems to be in order-be it bullion, real estate, equity stocks or mutual funds or fixed rate savings – all trends provide a messy guidance. With every one buying gold, it is already out of reach of many and in such a situation, it is bound go up further. Real estate is hit by huge inventories and lesser demand thereof  caused by higher interest rate regime.

While it is good to stay away from gold and equity for some days (rather weeks), investors and corporates, both have once again returned to old fixed deposit route, primarily due to hike in interest rates and hope of rates remaining high in foreseeable future. Companies are preferring to park additional or surplus funds in bank’s fixed deposit, besides the cash accruals from delayed expansion  and windfall gains in order to benefit from attractive rates of bank deposits. Not only this, investment in bonds and fixed maturity plans of mutual funds is also on a rise.

Recently, India Infoline Investments (IIFC) has come out with secured debentures bearing 11.9 percent coupon rate of 11.9% per annum which is the highest in recent times.

In times to comes, such bonds or debenture issues may fetch higher returns up to 12.5 percent p.a. interest. Moreover, good companies offering 11-12.50 percent interest can also be looked at as they give an effective yield of 14-15 percent when compounded.

For those risk loving investors, it is not that pessimism is going to last. Certainly there will be better days ahead and now is the time to look for really good value picks at rock bottom prices and enjoy the next ride to top.

= = = = = = = = = = =