FIRST ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2024-25

The National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note, the First Advance Estimates of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Financial Year (FY) 2024-25 along with its expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. Annual Estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity along with year-on-year percent changes, expenditure components of GDP and Annual estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income for the Financial Years 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25 at Constant and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 4 of Annexure A.

Key Highlights:

• Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2% in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY 2023-24. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7% in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6% in FY 2023-24.
• Real GVA has grown by 6.4% in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 7.2% in FY 2023-24. Nominal GVA has shown a growth rate of 9.3% in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.5% in FY 2023-24.
• Real GVA of Agriculture and allied sector has been estimated to grow by 3.8% during 2024-25 as compared to the growth of 1.4% witnessed during the last year, i.e., 2023-24.
• Real GVA of ‘Construction’ sector and ‘Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services’ sector has been estimated to observe good growth rates of 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively during the FY 2024-25.
• Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Constant Prices, has witnessed a growth rate of 7.3% during FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 4.0% in the previous Financial Year.
• Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Constant Prices, has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1% as compared to the growth rate of 2.5% in the previous Financial Year.

I. Annual GDP Estimates and Growth Rates

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹184.88 lakh crore in the financial year 2024-25, against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2023-24 of ₹173.82 lakh crore. The growth rate in Real GDP during 2024-25 is estimated at 6.4% as compared to 8.2% in 2023-24. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹324.11 lakh crore in the year 2024-25, against ₹295.36 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.7%.

Real GVA is estimated at ₹168.91 lakh crore in the year 2024-25, against the PE for the year 2023-24 of ₹158.74 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 6.4% as compared to 7.2% growth rate in 2023-24. Nominal GVA is estimated to attain a level of ₹292.64 lakh crore during FY 2024-25, against ₹267.62 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.3%

Fig. 1: Annual GDP and GVA Estimates along with Y-o-Y Growth Rates at Constant Prices

Fig. 2: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates of Annual GVA

Sectoral Composition of Nominal GVA in FY 2024-25

Fig. 3: Composition and Growth Rates of Annual GVA in Broad Sectors

[Primary Sector: Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing and Mining & Quarrying

Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water supply & Other Utility Services and Construction

Tertiary Sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services]

II. Methodology and Major Data Sources

Advance Estimates of GDP are indicator based and compiled using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous financial year (2023-24) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. Data sourced from various Ministries/Departments/Private Agencies serve as valuable input in the compilation of these estimates.

The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators/data sources viz. (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) Financial performance of Listed Companies based on available quarterly financial results of these companies for Q1 and Q2 of 2024-25, (iii) Estimates of Major Agricultural Crops and Horticultural crops for 2024-25 as provided by Ministry of Ag. & FW, (iv) Production Targets and Summer as well as Rainy season production estimates of Major Livestock Products for 2024-25; (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production of Coal, Crude Petroleum, Natural Gas, Cement and Consumption of Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits and Credits, (xii) Premium related information of Life and Non-Life Insurance companies, (xiii) Data on outward Supplies of Goods and Services available from GSTN upto November 2024, (xiii) Accounts of Central and State Governments, (xiv) Goods and Services Tax collections etc., available for first 6-9 months of the FY 2024-25. Year-on-Year growth rates (%) in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure B.

Total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue. The Budget Estimates of Tax revenue for 2024-25 along with latest available information from Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies at Current prices were compiled using the information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy for Centre as available on CGA website and the expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States up to November 2024 as available on CAG website along with the Centre/ State-wise BE provision for 2024-25. Information available on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. from Centre and States for 2024-25 were used for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

Improved data coverage and revision in input data made by source agencies would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take these into consideration while interpreting the figures. The Second Advance Estimates of Annual GDP for FY 2024-25 along with Quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter October-December of 2024-25 (Q3 2024-25) will be released on 28.02.2025.

Annexure A

Annexure B